Cost-Effectiveness of Prophylactic Surgery for Duodenal Cancer in Familial Adenomatous Polyposis

Abstract

Duodenal cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in familial adenomatous polyposis after colorectal cancer. The lifetime risk for developing duodenal cancer is 4% to 10%. Current treatment guidelines recommend endoscopic surveillance with a prophylactic pancreaticoduodenectomy in advanced duodenal polyposis, defined using the Spigelman staging system. Because no clinical trials have assessed this recommendation, a modeling approach was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various treatment strategies. A Markov model was constructed to estimate the life expectancy and cost of three different strategies: pancreaticoduodenectomy at Spigelman stage III, pancreaticoduodenectomy at Spigelman stage IV, and pancreaticoduodenectomy at cancer diagnosis. A cohort of 30-year-old familial adenomatous polyposis patients with total colectomies was simulated until age 80. The analysis was from a societal perspective. Extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of model uncertainty on results. At all stages of polyposis and all ages <80 years, prophylactic surgery at Spigelman stage IV resulted in the greatest life expectancy. Surgery at stage IV was more effective and more expensive than surgery at cancer diagnosis, with an incremental cost of $3,200 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Surgery at stage III was not a viable option. The results were robust to wide variation in model parameters but were sensitive to the post-pancreaticoduodenectomy quality of life score. Prophylactic pancreaticoduodenectomy at stage IV duodenal polyposis in familial adenomatous polyposis is a cost-effective approach that results in greater life expectancy than surgery at either stage III or cancer diagnosis.