Abstract
Pertussis is a highly contagious bacterial disease that primarily affects infants. To optimize the pertussis vaccination schedule in Israel and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies that add or remove booster doses, we developed an age-structured model for pertussis transmission. Our model was calibrated using 16 years of data from laboratory-confirmed pertussis cases in Israel. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) projected by the model within 12 years from the implementation of the considered interventions were compared with the current vaccination schedule. We found that by using the same number of vaccines administered today, the targeting of children at the age of six instead of seven would be predicted to be the optimal schedule to decrease both outpatient visits and hospitalizations. We also found that any increase in maternal vaccination coverage is likely to be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $77,000–$97,000 per QALY. By contrast, the contribution of the second booster dose is limited, with a probability of only 0.6 to be cost-effective at $110,000/QALY saved. Additional effort should be invested to encourage maternal vaccination against pertussis. We recommend moving the first booster to age six and prudently considering the necessity of the second booster dose.
Highlights
Academic Editors: Diana Boraschi and Magdalena A
Our pertussis transmission model was calibrated to the age-stratified monthly incidence of pertussis in Israel (Figure 2)
The model captured the clear pattern of 4year periodicity and the age distribution of pertussis cases
Summary
Academic Editors: Diana Boraschi and Magdalena A. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Over the past two decades, a resurgence of pertussis has been observed in several countries [1,2,3,4]. Known as whooping cough, is a highly infectious disease of the upper respiratory tract that is caused by the Gram-negative bacillus Bordetella pertussis
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