Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic QCT-based osteoporosis screening for the prediction of incident vertebral fractures.

Abstract

Opportunistic quantitative computed tomography (oQCT) derived from non-dedicated routine CT has demonstrated high accuracy in diagnosing osteoporosis and predicting incident vertebral fractures (VFs). We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of oQCT screening compared to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as the standard of care for osteoporosis screening. Three screening strategies ("no osteoporosis screening", "oQCT screening", and "DXA screening") after routine CT were simulated in a state-transition model for hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 patients (women and men aged 65 years) over a follow-up period of 5 years (base case). The primary outcomes were the cumulative costs and the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) estimated from a U.S. health care perspective for the year 2022. Cost-effectiveness was assessed based on a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $70,249 per QALY. The secondary outcome was the number of prevented VFs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the models' robustness. Compared to DXA screening, oQCT screening increased QALYs in both sexes (additional 2.40 per 1,000 women and 1.44 per 1,000 men) and resulted in total costs of $3,199,016 and $950,359 vs. $3,262,934 and $933,077 for women and men, respectively. As a secondary outcome, oQCT screening prevented 2.6 and 2.0 additional VFs per 1,000 women and men, respectively. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, oQCT screening remained cost-effective in 88.3% (women) and 90.0% (men) of iterations. oQCT screening is a cost-effective ancillary approach for osteoporosis screening and has the potential to prevent a substantial number of VFs if considered in daily clinical practice.