Abstract

BackgroundIn Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11–14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. MethodsA multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1–5years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. ResultsAfter the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350€ per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060€/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250€/YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. ConclusionsIn Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4–5years represents the best balance between costs and benefits.

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