Cost-effective and robust mitigation of space debris in low earth orbit

Abstract

For the wide acceptance of space debris mitigation measures throughout government agencies and industry, their cost-effectiveness must be demonstrated. The selected measures must not only be effective at controlling the future growth of the debris population, but they should also aim to minimise the collision risk to spacecraft at a minimal cost of implementation. Furthermore, the selected measures must be sufficiently robust to retain their effectiveness if unexpected increases in space activity were to occur. In this paper, clear criteria are established in order to assess numerous different Low Earth Orbit (LEO) debris mitigation scenarios for their cost-effectiveness and robustness. The ESA DELTA debris model is used to provide long-term debris environment projections for these scenarios as an input to the effectiveness/robustness element. Manoeuvre requirements for the different post-mission disposal scenarios are calculated in order to define the cost-related element. A 25-year post-mission lifetime de-orbit policy, combined with explosion prevention and mission-related object limitation, was found to be the most cost-effective solution to the space debris problem in LEO. This package would also be robust enough to retain its effectiveness even after a significant increase in future launch traffic. It was found that the re-orbiting of space systems above the LEO region would not lead to significant collision activity there over the next century. However, above-LEO disposal should be used sparingly because the disposal region could become unstable after a limited number of localised explosion or collision-induced breakup events due to a lack of air drag to remove the resulting fragments.