Cost comparison of major low-carbon electricity generation options: An Australian case study

Abstract

This paper compares the costs of significant deployment of key dispatchable low-emission electricity supply options in the Australian National Electricity Market. These include pulverised coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage, concentrating solar thermal with storage, biomass, enhanced geothermal systems and nuclear technologies. Our analysis draws upon published estimates of the potential underlying Australian energy resources for each technology, their technical performance and estimated costs. We identify appropriate locations for deployment subject to resource availability and the existing transmission network. The analysis includes estimates of the potential costs of new transmission lines and of augmenting the existing grid to integrate the different options at significant scale. We highlight the cost uncertainties associated with all technologies and the very high uncertainties for some, particularly when considering their potential exploration, appraisal and development costs. The ranking of technology costs show that biomass generation has likely both lower cost and lower cost uncertainties while enhanced geothermal systems have both higher mean cost and higher uncertainties. For the other technologies there is a trade-off between the expected costs and uncertainties.