Cost analysis of onshore wind power in China based on learning curve

Abstract

As installed wind power capacity continues to rise, the cost of onshore wind power generation in China has fallen, far exceeding the world average. The purpose of this study is to explore the main factors affecting onshore wind power in China and to identify ways to reduce costs. So as to reduce the cost of wind power and promote the large-scale grid-connected use of wind power. Therefore, this paper summarizes various factors that affect the development of onshore wind power. We also provide a comprehensive and repeatable MFLC (multi-factor learning curve) method to evaluate the factors affecting the cost of onshore wind power. Subsequently, the learning rates of various factors are calculated using this method. The results show that empirical learning by increasing installed capacity/generation, improving technology and selecting sites which are rich in natural resources, and appropriately reducing capital investment and material prices can significantly reduce the LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) of onshore wind power in China. Compared with wind power giants of the United States and Germany, the reduction in the cost of onshore wind power generation in China is more dependent on inputs such as capital investment and raw materials, while experience plays a relatively minor role. The ability to make full use of natural resources and to convert wind energy into electricity more efficiently is crucial to reducing the cost of wind power.