Abstract
The use of appropriate hourly reserve margins can maintain power system security by balancing supply and demand in the presence of errors in the forecast demand, generation outages, or errors in the forecast of wind power generation. Because the cost of unit commitment increases with larger reserve margins, cost analysis to determine the most economical reserve margin is an important issue in power system operation. Here, we define the “short-term reliability of balance” and describe a method to determine the reserve margin based on the short-term reliability of balance. We describe a case study, in which we calculate the reserve margin using this method with various standards of short-term reliability of balance. A cost analysis is then performed to determine the most economic standard, and a comparison between our method and a conventional method is carried out. The results show that our method with an economic short-term reliability of balance enables more reliable and efficient operation of the power system. Moreover, with an hourly reserve margin, we show that an increase in wind power generation can result in a significant decrease in the operating cost, which makes wind power generation economically viable.
Highlights
One of the most important characteristics of power systems is that demand and supply be balanced at all times
This paper describes a unit commitment method that considers the uncertainties caused by load forecasting, generation outage, and wind power forecasting
The major contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) precise generation outage modelling is formulated from unit commitment result based on the premise that volume of generation outage occurred equals the volume planned in unit commitment; (2) a new algorithm is proposed that can perform unit commitment with minimum reserve margin constraints in order to maintain the reliability standard in all time period, where the minimum reserve margin constraints are calculated with consideration of demand forecasting and wind power forecasting errors as well as generation outage; and (3) a case study is carried out to identify the usefulness of the proposed method in terms of improved reliability and cost-effectiveness, compared to the conventional method
Summary
One of the most important characteristics of power systems is that demand and supply be balanced at all times. The major contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) precise generation outage modelling is formulated from unit commitment result based on the premise that volume of generation outage occurred equals the volume planned in unit commitment; (2) a new algorithm is proposed that can perform unit commitment with minimum reserve margin constraints in order to maintain the reliability standard in all time period, where the minimum reserve margin constraints are calculated with consideration of demand forecasting and wind power forecasting errors as well as generation outage; and (3) a case study is carried out to identify the usefulness of the proposed method in terms of improved reliability and cost-effectiveness, compared to the conventional method.
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