Cosmogenic tsunamic risk assessment: a first application to the European Atlantic coasts

Abstract

We address the question of cosmogenic tsunamis, i.e., tsunamis due to the fall of an asteroid in the ocean, in particular on the Atlantic coasts of Europe. We apply Ward and Asphaug's method (Deep-Sea Res II 49:1073–1079, 2002) for assessing this probabilistic return period of tsunami waves, with simplifying assumptions allowing writing their results in the form of analytic formulae, some of them involving simple integrals to be computed by numerical quadrature. We also account for uncertainties, (still following Ward and Asphaug (Deep-Sea Res II 49:1073–1079, 2002) on a simplified line. An upper bound of continental shelf shoaling is estimated ad hoc. The influence of several parameters is also analyzed, in particular the effect of tide is briefly addressed.