Cosmic rays lagged influences on COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Aims:The present COVID-19 pandemic (C19P) has been challenging our socities all over the world. In this work, based on massive health information daily updated, 2020- 2022, the C19P daily death numbers at a global level, are empirically modelled, analyzed and forecasted. Methods: An empirical lagged cosmic ray model is proposed to explain the C19P global daily death (GDD) record. This GDD record was modelled, with consequent forecasts for the rest of the 2022 and 2023. Complementarily, two important records for US influenza and global measles are also modelled with cosmic-ray influences with decreasing lags. Findings: The detected lagged cosmic ray inluences suggest a decaying stage for the next year (August 2022-August 2023). Self-similar modelling of errors detect and forecast decaying impacts, due to vaccine campaigns, that suggest a decaying final phase of C19P. This scenario, after to be calibrated with other self-similar models, has provided to stakeholders of significant data and criteria to define, sustain and support plans for the next year, based on cosmic ray influences. Conclusion: The empirical global modeling of the C19P based on cosmic ray influences has strongly suggested, not only a decaying scenario, but also the complex sensitivity of living organisms to variable solar (cosmic) radiation. Certainly, further research is needed. However, these scenarios provide a well-based perspective on non-linear dynamics of C19P and other future pandemics, that will complement the standard health and economic models.