Cosmic ray fluctuation parameter as indicator of 11-year cycle activity growth phase

Abstract

The prolonged 23 cycle minimum has been tested on the basis of introduced by us the fluctuation parameter of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity. Long-term forecast of the onset of new (24) 11-year cycle with an advance of ~1 year is given. Besides, a middle-term forecast of activity growth phase of the new 24 cycle with the advance of ~1 Sun rotation is presented. From results of the wavelet-analysis it follows that a low-frequency drift of 11-year cycle period has begun as long ago as the 22 cycle. It is necessary to notice that we have predicted the failure of 11-year cycle period (by our terminology it is called a «low-frequency drift» [3]) 3 years prior to its obvious manifestation in 2008-2010. Results of a trajectory analysis of GCR fluctuation parameter on a complex phase plane indicate that the greatest area is "covered" with a trajectory of the same 22 cycle. It is believed (in the view of G.V. Kuklin, 1982) that the greatest area of phase trajectory is an evidence of abnormal cycle before a «phase catastrophe». It is obvious that since the 22 cycle the prolonged failure of 11-year cycling has begun.