Coseismic thermal pressurization can notably prolong earthquake recurrence intervals on weak rate and state friction faults: Numerical experiments using different constitutive equations

Abstract

We add a new perspective to component factors of earthquake cyclicity, namely coseismic thermal pressurization (TP) within fluid‐saturated fault zones, which is pore fluid pressurization caused by frictional heating. By using a single degree of freedom system with a rate‐ and state‐dependent friction law, we show that the short‐lived TP can prolong earthquake recurrence intervals. This lengthening effect can operate even without any notable shear heating in weak faults. Moreover, if the maximum increase in temperature is above a certain level, the permeability rather than the maximum temperature becomes important for the lengthening effect. Lower permeability causes longer recurrence intervals. By contrast, narrower slip zones (more pronounced heating) do not simply prolong recurrence intervals, although they entail higher dynamic undershoot and energy radiation. These features do not depend on whether the assumed evolution law is the Ruina law or the Dieterich law. However, our results indicate that if the degree of TP changes for each earthquake, the ideal time‐predictable model for earthquake cycles can be applicable only in the case of faults obeying the Ruina law. Furthermore, on the basis of the above‐mentioned dependence of the interval on the permeability, we point out that it is necessary to measure the permeability rather than the slip zone thickness (or the increase in temperature) in order to estimate the TP effect on long‐term earthquake cycles. Although it is currently difficult to measure the permeability under ground, measurements should be performed in the light of the importance of permeability in the prediction of future seismic hazards.