Abstract

Corrosion is a major cause of durability deterioration for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. This paper investigated the random evolution process of corrosion in steel bars under a constant corrosion current density. A probabilistic prediction model was developed combining a continuous-time Markov chain model with the Faraday law. The model parameter, state interval, which represents the difference between the actual adjacent corrosion depths, was calibrated by test data and statistically studied. Markov model predicted results showed that the corrosion depth followed the Poisson distribution while the longitudinal nonuniformity factor of corroded steel bars R, which was defined as the ratio of the average cross-sectional area to the minimum one, followed the Gumbel distribution. The probability distribution parameters of the factor R were determined by Monte-Carlo simulation. The corrosion depth and the factor R predicted by the Markov model agreed well with the experimental data.

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