Correlations in Party Performance in State Legislative Assembly and Subsequent National Parliamentary Elections in India, 1980–2009

Abstract

Using a panel data estimation technique, this article examines correlations in party performance in India for political parties that contested legislative assembly and federal parliamentary elections held within the following eighteen months during the period between 1980 and 2009. The results are analysed according to a range of variables, including type of party and voter turnout. The study's finding that, across party types, there is a strong and statistically significant correlation in party performance between the two elections provides empirical corroboration of prior studies that have suggested the existence of enduring linkages between politics at the state and federal levels. It also offers some validation for the popular media's and others' preoccupations with the outcome of legislative assembly elections as indicators of subsequent parliamentary polls.