Correlation of Social Media-Driven Risk Perception and Flood Insurance Uptake for Floods in the US

Abstract

Social media platforms play a key role in enhancing human response to natural hazards. They serve as tools for individuals to share first-hand observations, insights, and experiences, thus contributing to improved resilience. Increased attention of social and communication media content toward natural hazards has the potential to foster take up of private precaution and resilience measures such as purchasing a flood insurance. This study investigates the driving factors behind flood insurance purchase decisions in the US, with a focus on the roles of risk perception and social media as potential drivers for such decisions. We investigate the relationship between household flood insurance uptake and social media attention for flood events that occurred in the continental US from 2014 to 2021. We argue that the surge in insurance uptake in counties affected by flood events is primarily attributed to heightened risk perception resulting from direct exposure to flooding and from citizens’ awareness due to exposure to flood related information. We compare the time series of insurance take-up rate in a county with the number of flood-related social media posts in the adjacent counties using Dynamic Time Warping, which measures the similarity between two time series by optimally aligning their temporal structures. Additionally, we control for time passed since the last flood as well as the number of communities participating in the Community Rating System since these factors have shown to be important drivers of insurance uptake and may otherwise distort the temporal patterns associated to social media exposure. With our data-driven analysis we first evaluate the correlation between exposure to flood-related content on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and an increased likelihood of purchasing flood insurance. Consecutively, we quantify variations in risk perception and resilience due to exposure to flood-related content on social media. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of risk communication through social media and its implications for resilience-building efforts.