Correlation of climate change and human activities with agricultural drought and its impact on the net primary production of winter wheat

Abstract

Drought is a major natural disaster worldwide. Understanding the correlation between meteorological drought (MD) and agricultural drought (AD) is essential for relevant policymaking. In this paper, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized soil moisture index were used to estimate the MD and AD in the North China Plain (NCP) to identify the correlation between MD and AD during the growth period of winter wheat. In addition, we investigated the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activity (HA) to AD and the factors influencing the loss of winter wheat net primary production (NPP). Drought propagation time (PT) increased spatially from the southern to northern NCP (from 3 to 11 months). PT first increased and then decreased during the phenological period of winter wheat, and the decreasing trend was delayed with an increasing latitude. In general, the relative contribution of CC to AD was higher than that of HA; the correlation between MD and AD exhibited a weakening trend, particularly during the middle and late phenological stages of winter wheat. Precipitation was the main driver of the effects of HA on AD; the effects were stronger in areas with less precipitation. However, because of the improved irrigation conditions and scarce rainfall during the growth period of winter wheat in the study area, the effects of precipitation on AD were nonsignificant. Instead, temperature, wind, and total solar radiation, which are highly correlated with evapotranspiration, were identified as the primary drivers of AD; spatiotemporal variations were noted in these correlations. Prolonged drought PT reduced NPP; the sensitivity of winter wheat NPP to AD was higher in humid areas than in semiarid or semihumid areas. NPP loss occurred primarily due to HA. Our findings revealed a correlation between MD and AD in agroecosystems and may facilitate policymaking related to drought mitigation and food security.