Correlation models in flood risk analysis

Abstract

Statistical dependence among random hydraulic variables generally stems from a common meteorological cause. Usually, this dependence increases the probability of occurrence of floods. Therefore, in many (potential) applications in flood risk analysis there is a need for techniques that properly describe the statistical dependence among random variables. This study makes an inventory of existing bivariate correlation models as available from international literature and/or ‘Dutch practice’ in the design and testing of flood defence structures. Differences in correlation structures are described and quantified. Subsequently, their practical applicability is tested in two case studies.