Correlation between polio immunization coverage and overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study

Marwa Adel Afify,Sumayyah Mohammad Almarshedy,Sana Ghazi Alattas,Rakan M Alqahtani,Talal Nabeel Alrawaf,Mohammad Almohideb,Mohammed Abdulrahman Mohammed Alzamil,Faten Abdulrahman Khorshid,May Bin-Jumah,Mohamed M Abdel-Daim

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-12861-6

Abstract

We conducted the current analysis to determine the potential role of polio vaccination in the context of the spread of COVID-19. Data were extracted from the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Health Observatory data repository regarding the polio immunization coverage estimates and correlated to the overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19 among different countries. Data were analyzed using R software version 4.0.2. Mean and standard deviation were used to represent continuous variables while we used frequencies and percentages to represent categorical variables. The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for continuous variables since they were not normally distributed. Moreover, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (rho) was used to determine the relationship between different variables. There was a significantly positive correlation between the vaccine coverage (%) and both of total cases per one million populations (rho = 0.37; p-value < 0.001) and deaths per one million populations (rho = 0.30; p-value < 0.001). Moreover, there was a significant correlation between different income groups and each of vaccine coverage (%) (rho = 0.71; p-value < 0.001), total cases per one million populations (rho = 0.50; p-value < 0.001), and deaths per one million populations (rho = 0.39; p-value < 0.001). All claims regarding the possible protective effect of Polio vaccination do not have any support when analyzing the related data. Polio vaccination efforts should be limited to eradicate the disease from endemic countries; however, there is no evidence to support the immunization with live-attenuated vaccines for the protection against COVID-19.

Highlights

MethodsAs of December 2019, a significant number of patients with “unknown viral pneumonia” connected to a local Seafood Wholesale Market were identified in Wuhan City, China (Huang et al 2020)
We analyzed the correlation between polio vaccination coverage (%) and COVID-19 statistics in different countries (Tables 1 and 2)
On further analysis of the effect of starting year of vaccination policy, there was a positive correlation with total cases per one million populations and a negative one with deaths per one million populations; these correlations were not statistically significant (Figs. 3 and 4)

Summary

Introduction

MethodsAs of December 2019, a significant number of patients with “unknown viral pneumonia” connected to a local Seafood Wholesale Market were identified in Wuhan City, China (Huang et al 2020). SARS-CoV2 has exhibited an unprecedented spreading potential, affecting more than 210 countries all over the globe. There are dramatic differences in patterns of disease spread and how it behaves in various countries. The USA, which accounts for 29.5% of the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally, has a low mortality rate of 5.27%, which is the case in many other countries (Glass et al 2004). These differences have been hypothesized to be attributable to the variations in cultural norms and healthcare infrastructure. We propose an alternative theory, suggesting that the differences in the number of COVID-19 cases and the associated mortality rates might be explained, in part, by the variations in the coverage rates of universal polio vaccination policy in different countries all over the world

Results

Discussion

Conclusion