Correlation between overall survival and other efficacy endpoints in advanced biliary tract cancer: Literature-based analysis from 13 randomized trials of first-line chemotherapy.

Abstract

352 Background: Chemotherapy for advanced biliary tract cancer (ABC) has progressed. Now gemcitabine plus cisplatin combination is considered the standard 1st-line treatment based on the results of many randomized studies. However, the impact of various efficacy parameters on overall survival (OS) remains unclear. Methods: We searched PubMed database with the key words of (“biliary tract neoplasms” or “bile duct neoplasms” or “gallbladder neoplasms” or “cholangiocarcinoma” [All fields]) AND (“chemotherapy”[All fields]) AND Clinical trial [ptyp] between Apr 1984 to Jun 2013 and abstracts presented at the meetings of ASCO/Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium (2004–2013) and ESMO/WCGC (2002–2013). Then we identified randomized trials of 1st-line chemotherapy for ABC, and analyzed the relations between the results of OS and those of progression-free survival (PFS) or time to progression (TTP), response rate (RR), disease control rate (DCR), post-progression survival (PPS = median OS − median PFS/TTP), and the proportion of patients who received 2nd-line chemotherapy (%2nd). Results: Among 329 papers/abstracts retrieved, 13 randomized trials, 26 treatment arms of first-line chemotherapy for ABC were identified. Number of trials with information on median OS, median PFS/TTP, hazard ratio (HR) for OS and PFS/TTP, RR, DCR, and %2nd were 13, 13, 6, 13, 12, and 7, respectively. The analysis of all these trials demonstrated the median values (range) of OS, PFS/TTP, HR of OS, HR of PFS/TTP, RR, DCR, PPS, and %2nd were 9.4 (4.6–13) months, 5.3 (2.7–8.5) months, 0.71 (0.39–0.93), 0.65 (0.44–0.85), 20 (7.1–36) %, 67 (21–87) %, 4.0 (1.0–7.6) months, and 41 (15–79) %, respectively. Spearman rank correlation coefficient of differences (Δ) OS with ΔPFS/TTP, ΔRR, ΔDCR, and ΔPPS were 0.66, − 0.07, 0.66, and 0.34, respectively. The correlation coefficient between HRs for PFS/TTP and OS was 0.60. The correlation coefficient between ΔPPS and Δ%2nd was − 0.15. Conclusions: OS was moderately associated with PFS/TTP and DCR.