Correlation between model for end-stage liver disease score and prognosis in mushroom poisoning patients: a multicenter clinical study

Abstract

To find out the clinical indicators related to prognosis in patients with acute mushroom poisoning, and approach its correlation with prognosis. Clinical data of patients with mushroom poisoning admitted to the First Hospital of China Medical University, the Ninth People's Hospital of Shenyang, Xiuyan Central People's Hospital, and Fushun Central Hospital from August 2015 to August 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The biochemical indicators within 24 hours after admission, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, whether plasmapheresis (PE) was carried out or not and 28-day prognosis of patients were collected. According to prognosis, the patients were divided into death group and survival group, and the differences in above parameters between the two groups were compared. Spearman or Pearson correlation method was used to analyze the relationship between MELD score and prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the prognostic value of MELD score for prognosis. Further analysis of the patients receiving PE treatment was conducted. A total of four Liaoning hospitals with 89 patients with mushroom poisoning were enrolled, with 6 died within 28 days, and 83 survived. There were 17 patients with severely impaired liver and coagulant functions accepted PE treatment, with 6 patients died within 28 days, and 11 survived. (1) In 89 patients, compared with survival group, MELD score, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), blood glucose (Glu), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in death group were significantly increased [MELD score: 32.34 (28.31, 41.06) vs. 8.76 (3.77, 21.19), PT (s): 53.5 (52.4, 113.2) vs. 14.5 (13.8, 19.5), APTT (s): 58.6 (48.9, 70.8) vs. 36.9 (34.4, 43.2), TBil (μmol/L): 134.8 (31.3, 155.6) vs. 21.5 (15.1, 41.4), INR: 6.0 (5.6, 14.7) vs. 1.2 (1.1, 1.5), Glu (mmol/L): 9.2 (9.0, 11.0) vs. 6.6 (5.7, 7.8), ALT (U/L): 5 923.0 (1 105.0, 6 000.0) vs. 35.0 (18.0, 1 767.0), GGT (U/L): 49.0 (32.0, 57.0) vs. 25.0 (16.0, 41.0), all P < 0.05], but the prothrombin activity (PTA), albumin (ALB), serum Na+, Cl- were significantly decreased [PTA: 13.0% (6.0%, 14.0%) vs. 80.0% (61.0%, 87.0%), ALB (g/L): 31.1 (29.8, 39.0) vs. 42.4 (37.9, 44.3), Na+ (mmol/L): 126.5 (122.4, 131.0) vs. 137.0 (134.9, 141.0), Cl- (mmol/L): 93.5 (87.6, 95.0) vs. 104.0 (101.3, 106.0), all P < 0.05]. Spearson correlation analysis showed that MELD score of patients with mushroom poisoning was positively correlated with the 28-day mortality (r = 0.423, P = 0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of MELD score for prognosis of patients with mushroom poisoning was 0.926; when the cut-off value was 27.30, the sensitivity was 100%, and the specificity was 84.3%. (2) In 17 patients who accepted PE treatment, compared with survival group, the MELD score, TBil, Glu, and ALT in the death group were significantly increased [MELD score: 36.81±5.18 vs. 29.01±5.23, TBil (μmol/L): 145.2±13.9 vs. 93.2±44.0, Glu (mmol/L): 9.1±1.9 vs. 6.0±2.7, ALT (U/L): 5 961.5±44.5 vs. 3 932.9±1 625.7, all P < 0.05], and Cl- was significantly lowered (mmol/L: 94.3±1.2 vs. 100.5±5.7, P < 0.05), but SOFA score showed no significant difference (5.83±2.71 vs. 5.91±1.58, P > 0.05). Correlation analysis showed that the MELD score in patients with mushroom poisoning who accepted PE treatment was positively correlated with 28-day mortality (r = 0.355, P = 0.001), but no correlation with SOFA score was found (r = 0.427, P = 0.087). ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of MELD score in the prediction of mushroom poisoning patients undergoing PE treatment was 0.545; when the cut-off value was 32.19, the sensitivity was 33.3%, and the specificity was 100%. In mushroom poisoning patients, especially those undergoing PE treatment, the higher the MELD score, the higher the mortality is. MELD score could assess the prognosis of patients with acute mushroom poisoning.