Correlation Between Accidents on Selected Roads as Fundamental for Determining the Safety Level of Road Infrastructure

Abstract

The objective of the present publication was to determine whether the application of a statistical tool, analysis of the correlation between accidents that occur on roads before and after their modernization, can constitute the basis for creating a method for assessing the safety level of road infrastructure. It constitutes an entirely new approach to the methods used so far, aiming to determine high-risk zones/sections based solely on the number of accidents in the area covered by the analysis. Due to the general availability of data, the presented method can be both widely applied in practice and a tool to verify the correctness of specific risk factors contributing to the occurrence of undesirable road incidents. The conducted research allowed us to determine the correlation between the average number of accidents on alternative roads before the expressways/motorways were constructed and the average number of accidents on alternative routes after their completion is high. The situation is different in the case of the correlation between the average annual number of accidents on an alternative road before the completion of an expressway/motorway and the yearly average number of accidents on newly constructed sections. The results of our research suggest that the analysis of the correlation between accidents may constitute the basis for the development of a new method for assessing the level of road infrastructure safety.