Abstract
Human development is increasingly on global policy agendas, in particular related to the Sustainable Development Goals. Here, the UN Human Development Index is analysed for correlation and causation with economic and resource parameters using novel quantitative techniques. Global datasets at national resolution are used to explore correlation and causation with the HDI. The whole HDI is not correlated to national totals of wealth or resource use, but is strongly correlated to personal wealth and resource use. The multi-spatial convergence cross mapping method is adapted to shed light on causation in this system. It is shown that the HDI is tightly linked to the economy and to personal resource use. Analysis of the HDI sub-indices reveals subtleties easily overlooked. For example, it is shown that access to water and electricity strongly influence GNI. It is shown that simple resource accumulation/exploitation is less important in determining HDI growth than personal wealth and access to resources. That is, equitable distribution is more effective than gross accumulation in influencing the HDI. Strong feedback means that investments in water treatment and distribution networks, for example, will have strong effects on HDI change, a conclusion that may play an important role in national developmental policy debate.
Highlights
Human and global development have been an important global topic for many years
This study offers new information and insight on correlation and causality between the Human Development Index (HDI) and its dimension indices and economic, water and energy metrics, which may be used as a measure of development
HDI is very strongly correlated with access to electricity, with r2 = 0.76 (Figure 5), followed by life expectancy, GNI-per-capita and the mean and expected years of schooling, with r2 = 0.7, 0.61, 0.56 and 0.55, respectively. These results strongly suggest that personal wealth and high levels of access to resources across the population appear more important in determining human development more than national totals
Summary
Human and global development have been an important global topic for many years. In 2000, the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), of which there were eight (see http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals), were established, to be completed by 2015. Common metrics of interpretation of human development include GDP or GDP-per-capita, ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAŽIVANJA 1707 level of free speech, democratic rights and electoral processes and various metrics pertaining to water and energy supply and access and sanitation Many of these are covered in the SDGs. Many of these are covered in the SDGs Some of these alternative variables are likely correlated to the HDI and may influence it through a causal feedback relationship. What is less clear is the causation between the HDI and other measures
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