Correlates of Parity Progression amongst Migrants in North West Province of South Africa

Abstract

The decline in South Africa’s Total fertility rate from 5.37 in 1970 to 2.38 in 2019 is the subject of scrutiny in this dissertation. The study identifies five socioeconomic variables; Income, Education, Age, place of residence and official employment status for exploration of correlation with the total number of children ever born. The source of data is from the (10%) Post Enumeration Survey Sample of the 2011 Census conducted by Statistics South Africa. A cross sectional research design is adopted where parity progression ratios are calculated based on the independent variables followed by a simple linear regression model to test for association between one dependent and each of the five independent variables. The results reveal that international migrants are less likely than internal migrants to progress beyond parity five. The evidence is drawn from the lower parity progression ratio (PPR5+=0.71) for international migrants than for internal migrants (PPR5+=0.99). The analysis also reveals parity progression ratios for international migrants (PPR1 = 1.73) as higher than for internal Migrants (PPR1=1.63) for the first birth meaning that international migrants are more likely to progress from no birth to their first births. Beyond parity 1 international migrants are more cautious with the decision to progress to the next parity, evident from the lower parity progression ratios. Amongst women of parity 2,3, and 4 parity progression ratios of internal migrants is higher than for international Migrants. Association of income and total children ever born is negative and weak for internal migrants (-0.136) meaning that as income increases the total number of children ever born reduces slightly. A similar scenario is observed between education and total children ever born by international migrants where the association between income is weaker (-0.098***) although highly significant. As the highest education level attained increases from no education to tertiary education the total number of children ever born declines by (-0.305) for internal Migrants and (-0.231***) for international Migrants. A unit change in income results to a significant negative change (-0.086***) in the total number of children. While for international migrants a unit change in income results to (-0.283***) change in total children ever born. Correlation between Age, Place of residence and official employment status are positive significant and weak amongst internal migrants. The association between official employment status and total children ever born amongst international Migrants is not significant. The study recommends that policy and programs that target fertility should target traditional settlements, unemployed women, youth and teenagers and offer opportunities for sustainable livelihoods during and after their education.