Correlates of Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Two Metropolitan Cities in Bangladesh.

Mohammad Zahirul Islam,Cordia Chu,Shannon Rutherford,Dung Phung,Md Nazim Uzzaman,Muhammad Asaduzzaman,Mohammad Radwanur Rahman Talukder,M Mamun Huda,Scott Baum

doi:10.7759/cureus.3398

Abstract

Dengue fever is a major public health concern in Bangladesh with increased incidence during monsoon. We aimed to assess the correlation of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on dengue fever in two dengue endemic cities in Bangladesh. It was a time series analysis of climate factors and dengue occurrence data in Dhaka and Chittagong cities from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Daily mean temperature, rainfall, and humidity data were obtained from the Bangladesh meteorological department and daily dengue cases data were obtained from the directorate general of health services (DGHS) of Bangladesh. The mean dengue incidence was 31.62 (SD 28.7) per 100,000 in Dhaka whereas it was 5.76 (SD 11.7) per 100,000 population in Chittagong. The incidence of dengue cases was found significantly associated with the monthly mean temperature, total rainfall, and mean humidity in Dhaka, though in Chittagong, the significantly associated factors were monthly total rainfall and mean humidity. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identified monthly mean humidity and total rainfall as the most significant contributing factors for dengue cases in Dhaka and Chittagong, respectively. Our study reinforces the relationship of climate parameters with dengue fever, which will support policy-makers in developing a climate-based early warning system for dengue in Bangladesh.

Highlights

The global occurrence of dengue has increased radically in recent decades, endangering about half of the world's population at risk [1]
Rainfall, and humidity data were obtained from the Bangladesh meteorological department and daily dengue cases data were obtained from the directorate general of health services (DGHS) of Bangladesh
This study provides some evidence of the climate-sensitivity of dengue fever outbreaks and the vulnerability to the health consequences of climate change in Bangladesh

Summary

Introduction

The global occurrence of dengue has increased radically in recent decades, endangering about half of the world's population at risk [1]. Dengue is a climate-responsive disease and climate factors like temperature and rainfall are the most important factors in the occurrence and transmission of dengue fever [3]. Bangladesh is in the South-East Asia region of WHO, which is characterized by strong seasonal variation and heavy monsoon rainfall [4]. Dengue is highly seasonal in Bangladesh with an increased incidence during the monsoon [5]. The first recognized outbreak of dengue in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, was recorded in 1964 [6], followed by sporadic cases of dengue fever during 1977–78 and 1996–1997 [7,8], the

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