Correction on Forecasting of Hourly Surface Solar Radiation Based on TJ-WRF Model

Abstract

Using the meso-scale numerical model TJ-WRF,the hourly solar radiation from 9 January to 29 February was simulated,and the prediction effect was evaluated and corrected.The results showed that TJ-WRF model had certain ability to simulate the solar radiation,the correlation coefficient between simulation value and measured value was 0.831,and in sunny weather the simulation effect was the best,the correlation coefficient was 0.978.Analysis showed that the accuracy amount of the cloud simulated and the lack of aerosol were the main reasons for the simulation error.The correction effect by establishing the correlation between the difference between simulation value and measured value of solar radiation and the simulation of meteorological elements was the best,the relative root mean square error was 24.75%,mean absolute percentage error was 19.34%after correction.