Abstract
The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is social distancing, but the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need. Three studies conducted during the mass spreading of the virus in the United States toward the end of March 2020 show that this results partially from people's misperception of the virus's exponential growth in linear terms and that overcoming this bias increases support for social distancing. Study 1 shows that American participants mistakenly perceive the virus's exponential growth in linear terms (conservatives more so than liberals). Studies 2 and 3 show that instructing people to avoid the exponential growth bias significantly increases perceptions of the virus's growth and thereby increases support for social distancing. Together, these results show the importance of statistical literacy to recruit support for fighting pandemics such as the coronavirus.
Highlights
The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is social distancing, but the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need
Toward the end of March 2020, a month in which, in the United States, the number of infections increased from a few dozen to 200,000 cases, one in four Americans opposed social distancing measures [1]
At the same time, even heads of state such as American President Trump or Brazilian President Bolsonaro repeatedly downplayed the growth of the virus and opposed social distancing measures [2, 3]
Summary
The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is social distancing, but the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need. Three studies conducted during the mass spreading of the virus in the United States toward the end of March 2020 show that this results partially from people’s misperception of the virus’s exponential growth in linear terms and that overcoming this bias increases support for social distancing. Studies 2 and 3 show that instructing people to avoid the exponential growth bias significantly increases perceptions of the virus’s growth and thereby increases support for social distancing Together, these results show the importance of statistical literacy to recruit support for fighting pandemics such as the coronavirus. More in general, this prediction builds on literature showing that people, in general, have difficulty understanding exponential growth and erroneously interpret it in linear terms instead [5] This exponential growth bias is remarkably robust. Exposure to news showing that the virus has grown remarkably quickly in other parts of the world may increase the availability of the concept of exponential
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