Abstract

ECGD's OR group has built a financial model to forecast accounts and performance indicators. This meets the need for soundly based financial planning, and its output is considered at the highest levels of the organization. The model enables senior management to evaluate the consequences of different courses of action against the background of varying world economic scenarios. Using a financial planning package has made for quick and efficient development of the model, which has been modified continually over the last 10 years. A flexible, adaptive approach has maintained the relevance of OR's contribution. The model forecasts the financial variables which underpin ECGD's quarterly financial review and annual business plan. The Department's Financial Policy and Planning Division uses the model extensively in its preparation of these documents and to explore feasible policies through ‘what-if’ analyses. Organizational changes, increasing delegation, and the introduction of strategic planning will require further adaptation of the model allowing access to a wider range of end-users.

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