CORPORATE BOND MARKETS IN EASTERN EUROPE: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the process of the corporate bond market formation in Eastern Europe and to determine the prospects for development in Ukraine. Methodology. It is justified that the main variables that affect corporate bond issues are loans granted to financial corporations (excluding banks) and non-financial corporations, share issues and equity. The empirical basis of the study is the reports of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (on the amount of shares and bonds), the National Bank of Ukraine (on the amount of loans to corporations) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (on the amount of corporate equity). The study covers 20 years: from 2000 to 2019. Based on these data, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) was constructed. The forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) technique was used to identify the most influential variables in the corporate bond issuance process. Based on the VAR model, the forecast levels of model variables for 2021–2024 were obtained, which should have been achieved under the condition of planned development of the corporate bond market in Ukraine. It has been suggested that the economic shock of the COVID-19 has led to a decrease in the expected level of variables in 2020. Therefore, seven scenarios for the development of the corporate bond market are considered: A – reduction of equity amount; B – decrease in the amount of shares issued; C – decrease in the amount of loans to corporations; A + B; A + C; B + C; A + B + C. The results of the VDC technique have allowed to establish that the issue of corporate bonds in Ukraine largely depends on the amount of bank loans granted to corporations. Based on the VAR model and scenario forecasting, it was determined that the most favorable for the development of the corporate bond market of Ukraine is the scenario, in which corporations’ equity will be reduced by 10% due to increased uncovered loss but such a reduction will not lead to liquidation, and hence the cessation of circulation of their shares. Practical implications. Forecasting the amount of corporate bonds, shares and loans to corporations based on the proposed model allows companies to develop effective strategic plans, and investors – to decide on the allocation of their own financial resources. Value/originality. The proposed model of corporate bond market development in Ukraine includes internal and external sources of financing of enterprises, and allows to quantify the relationship between financial instruments (corporate bonds, loans and shares).