Coronavirus disease vulnerability map using a geographic information system (GIS) from 16 April to 16 May 2020

Abstract

In recent months, the world has been affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Iran is one of the most affected countries. The Iranian government's health facilities for an urgent investigation of all provinces do not exist simultaneously. There is no management tool to identify the vulnerabilities of Iranian provinces in prioritizing health services. The aim of this study was to prepare a coronavirus vulnerability map of Iranian provinces using geographic information system (GIS) to monitor the disease. For this purpose, four criteria affecting coronavirus, including population density, percentage of older people, temperature, and humidity, were prepared in the GIS. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to determine the vulnerability of coronavirus in Iran. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model was used to predict vulnerability in the next two months. Results indicated that, population density and older people have a more significant impact on coronavirus in Iran. Based on MGWR models, Tehran, Mazandaran, Gilan, and Alborz provinces were more vulnerable to coronavirus in February and March. The ANFIS model findings showed that West Azerbaijan, Zanjan, Fars, Yazd, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Tehran provinces were more vulnerable in April and May.