Coronary heart disease and stroke attributable to major risk factors is similar in Argentina and the United States: The Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model

Abstract

Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in Argentina and the U.S. Argentina is 92% urban, with cardiovascular disease risk factor levels approximating the U.S. Methods The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model is a national-scale computer model of CHD and stroke. Risk factor data were obtained from the Cardiovascular Risk Factor Multiple Evaluation in Latin America Study (2003–04), Argentina National Risk Factor Survey (2005) and U.S. national surveys. Proportions of cardiovascular events over 2005–2015 attributable to risk factors were simulated by setting risk factors to optimal exposure levels [systolic blood pressure (SBP) 115 mm Hg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) 2.00 mmol/l (78 mg/dl), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) 1.03 mmol/l (60 mg/dl), absence of diabetes, and smoking]. Cardiovascular disease attributable to body mass index (BMI) > 21 kg/m² was assumed mediated through SBP, LDL, HDL, and diabetes. Results Cardiovascular disease attributable to major risk factors was similar between Argentina and the U.S., except for elevated SBP in men (CHD 8% points higher in Argentine men, 6% higher for stroke). CHD attributable to BMI > 21 kg/m² was substantially higher in the U.S. (men 10–11% points higher; women CHD 13–14% higher). Conclusions Projected cardiovascular disease attributable to major risk factors appeared similar in Argentina and the U.S., though elevated BMI may be responsible for more of U.S. cardiovascular disease. A highly urbanized middle-income nation can have cardiovascular disease rates and risk factor levels comparable to a high income nation, but fewer resources for fighting the epidemic.