Coronal mass ejections: Some possibilities for prediction

Abstract

The onset stage of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is difficult to observe and is poorly studied. In spite of their practical importance, methods for CME predictions with sufficient lead times are only in the nascent stages of development. The most probable CME mechanism is a catastrophic loss of equilibrium of a large-scale current system in the corona (a flux rope). A twisted magnetic rope is maintained by the tension of field lines of photospheric sources until parameters of the system reach critical values and the equilibrium is lost. Unfortunately, there is low-density plasma (coronal cavity) in most of the rope volume; thus, it is difficult to observe a rope. However, the lower parts of the helical field lines of a rope are fine traps for the dense cold plasma of prominences. Thus, prominences are the best tracers of flux ropes in the corona. The maximal height up to which the rope is in stable equilibrium can be found by analyzing the distribution of the magnetic field generated by photospheric sources in the corona. Comparing this critical height with the actually observed prominence height, one can estimate the probability of the loss of equilibrium by a magnetic rope with a following eruption of prominences and coronal mass ejections.