Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal

Kim Kwee Ng

doi:10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

Abstract

The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude R<sub>N</sub> of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R<sub>25</sub> = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.

Highlights

The activity of the Sun has long been a very important topic
Coronal mass ejections are one of the dominant ways that solar activity could affect the accuracy in the prediction of future solar activity, when the geomagnetic index and other similar data are employed in the analysis of the solar activity
The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the maximum amplitude RN of the subsequent solar cycle N is found to have drastically improved with the corrected data

Summary

Introduction

Solar events include solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), magnetic poles reversal and their associated solar cycles. Motivations for better understanding these phenomena include the fact that high-energy charged particles and short-wavelength photons produced from the coronal mass ejections are dangerous to satellites and astronauts, and have been known to cause wide spread communication interruption and equipment failures. Coronal mass ejections are one of the dominant ways that solar activity could affect the accuracy in the prediction of future solar activity, when the geomagnetic index and other similar data are employed in the analysis of the solar activity. A new scheme is proposed below to compensate for the elevated values caused by the coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the maximum amplitude RN of the subsequent solar cycle N is found to have drastically improved with the corrected data

Methods

Results

Conclusion