CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델 앙상블을 이용한 전지구 온난화 제한 목표(1.5, 2.0℃)하에서의 한반도 미래 기온 전망

Abstract

This study presents a future projection of temperature over the Korean Peninsula (KP) under the global warming targets of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. For projection, simulation data from the multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia (EA) Phase 2 are used. Under the 2.0℃ (1.5℃) global warming condition, mean temperature over KP would increase 2.13℃ (1.51℃) compared to the present period (1985 ~ 2005 years). Extreme minimum and maximum temperature intensity indices (TNn and TXx) would also increase 2.61℃ (1.91℃) and 2.38℃ (1.58℃). In addition, changes in probabilities of extreme temperature events that occurs once in 20 years during the present period are investigated. Extreme cold events would occur once in 28.9 years (22.6 years) and warm events once in 5.9 years (7.2 years). Meanwhile, there are several noteworthy points about the future projection. The temperature over KP would increase more over the northern KP than the southern KP and this feature is more distinct in TNn. The uncertainties of the projection are higher for the 1.5℃ warming condition than the 2.0℃ warming condition and for extreme temperature versus mean temperature. The spatial pattern of change in extreme temperature frequency is different from that of intensity. In other words, a smaller increase in the frequency of extreme cold events is expected over the inland KP.