Abstract

Interleukin-10 receptor (IL-10R) deficiency can result in life-threatening very early-onset inflammatory bowel disease (VEO-IBD). Umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) is a curative therapy for patients with IL-10R deficiency. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of UCBT in treating IL-10R deficiency and develop a predictive model based on pre-transplant factors. Eighty patients with IL-10R deficiency who underwent UCBT between July 2015 and April 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression and random survival forest were used to develop a predictive model. Median age at transplant was 13.0months (interquartile range [IQR], 8.8-25.3months). With a median follow-up time of 29.4months (IQR, 3.2-57.1months), the overall survival (OS) rate was 65.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 55.3%-76.3%). The engraftment rate was 85% (95% CI, 77%-93%). The cumulative incidences of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease were 48.2% (95% CI, 37.1%-59.4%) and 12.2% (95% CI, 4.7%-19.8%), respectively. VEO-IBD-associated clinical symptoms were resolved in all survivors. The multivariate analysis showed that IL-6 and stool occult blood were independent prognostic risk factors. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model with stool occult blood, length- or height-for-age Z-score, medical history of sepsis, and cord blood total nucleated cells showed good discrimination ability, with a bootstrap concordance index of 0.767-0.775 in predicting OS. Better inflammation control before transplantation and higher cord blood total nucleated cell levels can improve patient prognosis. The nomogram can successfully predict OS in patients with IL-10R deficiency undergoing UCBT.

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