Corals Reveal Interdecadal Variation of Tropical Cyclones Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Abstract

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) lead to huge economic losses and casualties in coastal regions, but multi‐decadal variation of TC remains poorly understood due to the limited length of observational records and low‐resolution reconstructions. Porites corals provide continuous and monthly resolved records that allow for the determination of weather‐timescale (weekly to monthly) extreme events, including TC, to overcome the above limitations. Here we synthesize five coral Δδ18O records from the South China Sea (SCS) and develop a coral TC frequency index, in good agreement with post‐1980 instrumental records and sediment‐based TC reconstructions over the past century. Our results indicate that TC frequency in the SCS exhibits pronounced decadal variations, with active TCs corresponding to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Our findings here provide novel evidence for past TC changes in the SCS and a constraint for predicting future TC changes.