Abstract
AbstractRecent outbreaks of coral diseases in the Caribbean have been linked to increasingly stressful sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). Yet, ocean warming is spatially heterogeneous and therefore has the potential to lead to hotspots of disease activity. Here, we take an epidemiological approach to examine spatial differences in the risk of white‐band disease on Acropora spp. and yellow‐band disease on Orbicella spp. in the Caribbean. Our analysis involved examining the spatial patterns of disease prevalence, and creating a Bayesian‐risk model that tested for regional differences in disease risk. The spatial examination of disease prevalence showed several clusters of white‐band disease, including high prevalence in the Turks and Caicos, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Belize, whereas yellow‐band disease seemed most prevalent along the Yucatan Peninsula. The Bayesian‐risk model showed regional clusters of white‐band disease near the southern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Lesser Antilles, whereas the risk of yellow‐band disease was highest in the southern Caribbean. The relative risk of both diseases increased with warmer SSTs. The Bayesian‐risk model allowed us to predict where we should expect future outbreaks of coral diseases at a regional scale, and suggests regions where the implementation of disease mitigation plans may be most urgent.
Highlights
During the last three decades, reef corals have experienced unprecedented thermal stress (Glynn 1993, Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Aronson et al 2000)
Whiteband disease on Acropora was prevalent in the Turks and Caicos, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Belize (Fig. 3, bottom left)
The Bayesian-risk model, without considering spatial dependencies, showed areas of high risk of white-band disease on Acropora, which were located in the southern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Lesser Antilles (Fig. 2, center)
Summary
During the last three decades, reef corals have experienced unprecedented thermal stress (Glynn 1993, Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Aronson et al 2000). It has been proposed that thermal stress is a driver of several coral diseases, we are just beginning to understand the environmental conditions that trigger coral disease outbreaks (Harvell et al 2002, Lesser et al 2007, Muller et al 2008, Randall and van Woesik 2015). It is unknown whether there are emerging hotspots of coral disease activity in the Caribbean.
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