Copula-based analysis of socio-economic impact on water quantity and quality: A case study of Yitong River, China

Abstract

Socio-economic development has a significant impact on both water quantity and quality. However, few studies have considered the complex relationship between water quantity and quality when evaluating such impact. In this study, three indicators based on copula model were proposed, namely, water quantity improvement degree (WQIDw), water quality improvement degree (WQIDq) and water quantity and quality joint improvement degree (WQJID). These indicators were used to assess the impact of social economy on water quantity and quality, and applied to a case study in Yitong River in Northeast China from 2021 to 2025. Four scenarios were set to explore the impact of socio-economic development and water resources protection on WQIDw, WQIDq and WQJID. The maximum WQIDw, WQIDq and WQJID were <1 under the business-as-usual scenario, which showed that the present socio-economic pattern caused great damage to river water quantity and quality. The combined effect of socio-economic development and water resources protection increased the WQJID of COD and NH3-N by 1.67 and 1.30. This showed that attention should be paid to water resources protection while developing social economy. Compared with comprehensive evaluation, separate evaluation of water quality will underestimate the impact of social economy on rivers, while separate evaluation of water quantity will overestimate the impact. The relationships between WQIDw, WQIDq and WQJID were quantified. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the evaluation was controlled by the selection of water quality indicators. The WQIDq, WQIDw and WQJID proposed in this study provide a comprehensive assessment tool for guiding water resources management.