Abstract
A Copula Contagion Index (CCI) is established to measure financial contagion, based on the time-varying copula function. Empirical studies performed on the crisis spillover of US Subprime Mortgage Crisis demonstrate the efficiency of CCI. The empirical results from event study, change-point analysis, logitistic/probit regressions and the detection of the lead–lag relations by Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK)-Vector Autoregressive (VAR)-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model show that, the index is efficient in detecting the financial contagions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the index is robust. Besides, empirical results indicate that the developed markets rather than the emerging markets suffered more severely and quickly from the US subprime mortgage crisis.
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