Copula-based projections of wind power: Ireland as a case study

Abstract

Wind energy is a key element in the ongoing push to decarbonize the energy supply. The first step in the development of a wind farm at a specific site is to conduct feasibility studies including accurate long-term wind potential assessments and estimates of the annual energy production. However, as evidence of climate change becomes more apparent recently, concerns about the planning and utilization of wind resources in the face of these new conditions have increased. Accurate projections are needed to determine the frequency distribution of wind speeds in an area and, on this basis, estimate the energy production. The purpose of this study is to analyze the wind resource, to estimate its potential and to prepare zoning maps of wind energy production to determine the most suitable sites for wind farms in Ireland. For this purpose, wind data from ten Global Circulation Models and different climate-change scenarios were used during the historical and future period of 1981–2010 and 2021–2050, respectively. These data were evaluated in the study area and then a multi-criteria decision-making method was applied to choose the best representative climate models over the area. In order to post-process the outputs of the selected models, 17 statistical distributions and 26 Copula families were applied. Results showed that the average wind speed in the region during the historical period is expected to decrease in 2021–2050 by approximately 2–7% based on the climate scenarios. Additionally, wind power density maps were produced for the study area.