Copula based model for representation of hybrid power plants in non-sequential Monte Carlo reliability evaluation

Abstract

This article aims to propose models that allow the representation of the correlation between intermittent renewable generation in reliability evaluation based on non-sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The models make use of the theory of Copulas, specifically the theory of Archimedean Copulas. To represent hybrid power plants with different types of energy sources (wind and solar, for example), it is used the theory of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas. The models are validated by calculating generation reliability indices by three different approaches that are then compared: sequential MCS (that uses the chronological simulation), classical non-sequential MCS (that assumes independency between random variables) and the non-sequential MCS incorporating the Copula based models. The results show that the use of Copulas is able to represent accurately the correlation and complementarity between the sources, without the computational burden of the chronological simulation.