Abstract

Modelling, describing and measuring the structure dependences between different random events is at the very heart of statistics. Therefore, a broad variety of varying dependence concepts has been developed in the past. Most often, practitioners rely only on the linear correlation to describe the degree of dependence between two or more variables; an approach that can lead to quite misleading conclusions as this measure is only capable of capturing linear relationships. Copulas go beyond dependence measures and provide a sound framework for general dependence modelling. This paper will introduce an application of Copula to estimate, understand, and interpret the dependence structure in a given set of data El-Niño in Banyuwangi, Indonesia. In a nutshell, we proved the flexibility of Copulas Archimedean in rainfall modelling and catching phenomena of El Niño in Banyuwangi, East Java, Indonesia. Also, it was found that SST of nino3, nino4, and nino3.4 are most appropriate ENSO indicators in identifying the relationship of El Nino and rainfall.

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