Copula-based estimation of directional extreme wind speeds: Application for wind-resistant structural design

Abstract

Accurate probabilistic modelling of wind loads has important implications to the wind-resistant design of structures. Whereas, most previous studies merely concerned the statistical analysis of wind speed, while the effect of wind direction was usually neglected in the wind load modelling. This paper thereby proposes a novel copula-based approach to construct the joint distribution of wind speed and direction for determining the directional extreme wind speed. Based on the wind records at six typical sites in Hong Kong, a series of parametric and nonparametric copula models are applied to model the joint probability density function (JPDF) of wind speed and direction. The goodness-of-fit test indicates that the Bernstein copula is the best model to describe the correlation between variables. Furthermore, by applying the superior copula model, directional extreme wind speeds with a 10-year return period at the six selected sites are determined on basis of the conditional probability theory. The results show that the estimated extreme wind speeds vary obviously among different directions. And, the estimated directional extreme wind speed may be unreliable in some directions when ignoring the joint effect of wind speed and direction in wind load modelling. Notably, the presented method is an effective and practical tool to estimate the directional extreme wind speed with a certain return period. This paper aims to provide useful reference for the wind-resistant design in tropical cyclone-prone regions.