Copula-Based Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization

Abstract

We extend the Black-Litterman (BL) approach to incorporate tail dependency in portfolio optimization and estimate the posterior joint distribution of returns using vine copulas. Our novel copula-based BL (CBL) model leads to flexibility in modeling returns symmetric and asymmetric multivariate distribution from a range of copula families. Based on a sample of 30 stocks, we evaluate the performance of the suggested CBL approach and portfolio optimization technique using out-of-sample back-testing. Our empirical analysis and robustness check indicate better performance for the CBL portfolios in terms of lower tail risk and higher risk-adjusted returns, compared to the benchmark strategies.