Cops and robbers in Cincinnati: a spatial modeling approach for examining the effects of aggressive policing

Abstract

Aggressive policing tactics have been frequently examined in crime prevention studies, both in their effectiveness at reducing crime and possible problems of displacement of crime. This study examines robberies in the city of Cincinnati following a major increase of arrests for minor offenses in a relatively small area – the Over-the-Rhine neighborhood of the city, as a result of an aggressive policing operation named Operation Vortex. A spatio-temporal weighted displacement quotient test is developed to examine possible displacement of crime or a diffusion of benefits. A diffusion of benefits is found to be taking place at the immediate neighboring areas of Over-the-Rhine; however, at a greater distance from the treatment area, an increase of crime has occurred. The relationship between the change of robberies and distance to the treatment area is examined by using regression models.