Coping with uncertainty: Exploring the foresight actions’ role in supporting growth-orientation among Finnish dairy farmers

Abstract

The two objectives of this study are to investigate how Finnish dairy farmers cope with uncertainties of their external business environment and how they apply foresight methods in their strategic management, e.g., in planning for expansion. The research data consist of 135 survey responses from larger than average dairy farmers across Finland. To reveal the role of future thinking and long-term management in farmers’ goal setting, we first carried out an explorative factor analysis (EFA) for the management related claims. The identified latent factors were managerial, planning, and cautious approach. Significant differences in managerial approach were found with respect to turnover and age of farmers. Planning approach correlated with farmer’s time horizon. In the binary logistic regression for predicting the growth orientation farmer’s planning approach, age and length of time horizon were the only significant predictors. Many farmers are particularly cautious when it comes to planning the future of milk production. Strengthening farmers’ foresight skills with training may help farmers to cope with volatile business environments.