Coping with uncertainties of sustainability transitions using exploratory modelling: The case of the MATISSE model and the UK's mobility sector

Abstract

Modelling is an important approach for analysing the behaviour of sustainability transitions. However, the presence of uncertainty challenges the usefulness of models and our inference from model results. We use the example of the MATISSE agent-based model to examine conditions for a transition to a public transport mobility regime under uncertainty in the UK. We use ‘exploratory modellingö to investigate the regions of model uncertainty in a structured way. Model results are generated from a wider range of input values compared to that applied normally in transitions modelling. A stochastic description of the pathways of adoption of different mobility lifestyles is developed. Our approach identifies possible transition pathways under an uncertain future in response to ranges of behavioural changes of households. A sensitivity analysis over the critical behavioural parameters also shows how the interactions between households and mobility lifestyle niches are determined by the dynamics of household behaviours.