Abstract

Cumulative and synergistic impacts from environmental pressures, particularly in low-lying tropical coastal regions, present challenges for the governance of ecosystems, which provide natural resource-based livelihoods for communities. Here, we seek to understand the relationship between responses to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events and the vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Caribbean region of Colombia. Using two case study sites, we show how communities are impacted by, and undertake reactive short-term responses to, El Niño and La Niña events, and how such responses can affect their adaptive capacity to progressive environmental deterioration. We show that certain coping measures to climate variability currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in circumstances that could contribute to system ‘lock-in’ and engender undesirable ecological states, exacerbating future livelihood vulnerabilities. We highlight the significant role of social barriers on vulnerabilities within the region, including perceptions of state abandonment, mistrust and conflicts with authorities. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability include enhancing the communities’ capacity to adopt more positive and preventative responses based on demonstrable experiential learning capacity. However, these will require close cooperation between formal and informal organisations at different levels, and the development of shared coherent adaptation strategies to manage the complexity of multiple interacting environmental and climatic pressures.

Highlights

  • Ecosystems and human communities on low-lying coasts (land below 10 m above mean sea level, contiguous and hydrologically connected to the sea (McGranahan et al 2007)) are at the forefront of anthropogenic environmental change

  • Participants identified a broad range of issues that affect their vulnerability to multiple stressors

  • Our results show that the La Boquilla and Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) communities have an in-depth knowledge of the status of environmental assets of their mangrove-fringed lagoons and the dynamics of lagoonal change, related to both natural and social pressures

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Summary

Introduction

Ecosystems and human communities on low-lying coasts (land below 10 m above mean sea level, contiguous and hydrologically connected to the sea (McGranahan et al 2007)) are at the forefront of anthropogenic environmental change. They are exposed to a multitude of stressors including climate change, sea-level rise, mass tourism, urban and infrastructure expansion, watershed pollution, sedimentation, habitat fragmentation and overfishing (Allison et al 2009; Hernández-Delgado et al 2012). The combination of high warming scenarios, continued trends in coastal development and low levels of adaptation will lead to challenges for the habitability of many low-lying coastal communities by the latter half of the twenty first century (Magnan et al 2019) and, even if stabilisation of global temperature is achieved, potential impacts will continue to be experienced for at least several centuries (Nicholls et al 2018)

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