COPEWELL all-hazards resilience model predicts COVID-19 outcomes

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented an unprecedented challenge to public health and other community level systems throughout the United States since 2020. Investigating county-level factors (covariates in a statistical sense) closely related to COVID mortality is an important research objective, as it can provide insight for improving pandemic preparedness and response. Community resilience, which signifies the capability and capacity of communities to withstand and recover from adverse events, is a crucial component of pandemic preparedness. In this study, researchers employed Pearson's correlation coefficient and mediation analysis to explore the community resilience predicted by the Composite of Post-Event Well-Being (COPEWELL) model as a potential covariate that could be used to predict COVID-19 fatalities and further examine the generalizability and validity of the COPEWELL Model to the pandemic. Our findings indicate that the resilience predicted by the COPEWELL model is more strongly associated with COVID-19 health oucomes than county-level vaccination rates, although vaccination rate partially mediates the relationship between community resilience and COVID-19 fatalities per capita. This article underscores the effectiveness of implementing comprehensive all-hazards preparation strategies in the context of a pandemic and demonstrates that the COPEWELL model can serve as a valuable tool for identifying investments that can enhance community resilience.