Coordinating Party Choice in Founding Elections

Abstract

This article examines the causes of party system fragmentation in new democracies, arguing that party formation and coordination in emerging party systems are closely linked to the politics of democratization. In particular, elections that occur late within regime transitions are likely to produce more fragmented party systems than are early founding elections; in situations of economic instability, the decentralizing effect of a late founding election is likely to be greater. The results confirm this hypothesis: The farther away founding elections occur from the transfer of executive authority from an authoritarian regime, the more fragmented is the resulting party system. The effect of a late founding election increases as the inflation rate increases. These results are important because the pattern of fragmentation established in founding elections is relatively stable; indeed, founding elections do not appear anomalous compared with subsequent elections, contrary to conventional wisdom.