Abstract

With the International Space Station (ISS) coming to the end of its life, the next decade will see significant changes in human spaceflight after a quarter of a century of stasis. America has decided NASA will purchase all its civil Low Earth Orbit (LEO) capability from commercially run space stations. All these companies will be American and as a consequence, foreign participants are in a weaker position than they are with the ISS, which operates under government to government agreements. Europe has to decide whether to accept more American control of its programmes or to create an autonomous capability. Most ESA nations have policies that are driven by prestige motivations and these would be considerably reduced. Also, these nations have decades of investment in a human spacecraft industry which will be at risk in the new post ISS environment. Developing an independent European human infrastructure in LEO is both achievable and probably the best route to meet these national objectives. Although an ESA member, the United Kingdom has different national Space objectives, which emphasise direct economic return; further, it does not have an indigenous industry to protect. However, the future of human spaceflight will have an increasing significant element of economic exploitation, which will be accelerated by the American commercial post-ISS architecture, which the UK cannot ignore. Furthermore, while all ESA members would benefit from an autonomous European capability, there is a potential tension between nations due to differing national policy objectives. Those with prestige objectives just need a working infrastructure that fits a funding corridor, but the British economic objectives will require an economically competitive capability. Keywords: Space Policy, UK Space Programme, Human Spaceflight

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